The International Institute for Research and Development (IIRD Africa), a Malawi-based consulting firm, has released a nationwide pre-election survey indicating that the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) is firmly ahead in the race for the September 2025 polls.
The survey, conducted between 11 August and 3 September 2025, sampled 5,002 respondents across the country 44.9 percent from the Central Region, 42.7 percent from the Southern Region, and 12.4 percent from the Northern Region.
Findings show that MCP, led by President Lazarus Chakwera, commands 56.5 percent support, translating to about 4.07 million votes. This places the ruling party as the only one projected to surpass the 50%+1 threshold required for an outright first-round victory.
Former President Peter Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) trails in second place with 27.2 percent (1.96 million votes). While the DPP maintains a stronghold in the Southern Region, its influence appears weaker in the Central and Northern regions.
The United Transformation Movement (UTM), under Dalitso Kabambe, is projected third with 6.6 percent (around 480,000 votes), showing relative popularity among young people and urban-based voters.
Other parties, including the United Democratic Front (UDF), People’s Party (PP), OZAM, PDP, and independents, collectively make up about 8 percent of the vote share, though their support remains fragmented and regionally inconsistent.
According to IIRD Africa, MCP’s dominance in the Central and Northern regions significantly offsets its weaker standing in the South, giving the party a commanding national advantage and a clear path to a possible outright win.
The survey also captured voter priorities. The economy and rising prices emerged as the most pressing concern for 49 percent of respondents, followed by food security at 28.5 percent. Jobs and youth employment were cited by 8.5 percent, while corruption ranked fourth at 7.3 percent. Other issues highlighted included education, health, and infrastructure development.
Presenting the findings, Dr. Kennedy Luwegha and Professor Dyson Kajani, directors at IIRD Africa, emphasized that the results reflect current voter sentiment but also cautioned that shifting campaign dynamics could still influence outcomes as election day approaches.
